Are We Past the Worst?

We are publishing our macroeconomic outlook for 1H’2025 addressing the pressing question on everyone’s mind, “Are We Past the Worst?” The interim government formed after the July Uprising faces a challenging economic landscape, marked by high inflation, soaring interest rates, exchange rate fluctuations, and a slowdown in growth. CAL’s view is that while six more months of economic pain lie ahead, a foundation for recovery is being laid. Key indicators suggest that stabilization in inflation and exchange rates by second half of 2025 will set the stage for gradual improvement in economic activity, easing lending rates, and a return to growth by next year. However, persistent political risks continue to loom over this outlook.