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We are publishing our macroeconomic outlook for 1H’2025 addressing the pressing question on everyone’s mind, “Are We Past the Worst?” The interim government formed after the July Uprising faces a challenging economic landscape, marked by high inflation, soaring interest rates, exchange rate fluctuations, and a slowdown in growth. CAL’s view is that while six more months of economic pain lie ahead, a foundation for recovery is being laid.

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Are We Past the Worst?

We are publishing our macroeconomic outlook for 1H’2025 addressing the pressing question on everyone’s mind, “Are We Past the Worst?” The interim government formed after the July Uprising faces a challenging economic landscape, marked by high inflation, soaring interest rates, exchange rate fluctuations, and a slowdown in growth. CAL’s view is that while six more months of economic pain lie ahead, a foundation for recovery is being laid.

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Bangladesh Telecom Sector Earnings Update 2Q2024

Reaching a Stable Pulse with Essential Reforms

Bangladesh has undergone a significant political shift with the nation facing both significant challenges and potential opportunities. We are updating our Macroeconomic Outlook for 2H’2024, initially published in July’2024, reflecting the new reality. Download Report

Vital Signs Stabilizing

We are publishing our macroeconomic outlook for the second half of 2024, building on our previous forecasts for the first half of 2024 and previewing the upcoming monetary policy. Bangladesh Bank (BB) is scheduled to announce its monetary policy in July 2024. In line with IMF recommendations, BB is expected to unveil a continued contractionary monetary policy focusing on taming inflation. Download Report

Progressive Pursuit Amid Structural Shifts

The central bank has demonstrated flexibility by adapting its policy framework to include significant structural changes recommended by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the Monetary Policy for the first half of the fiscal year 2024. In our macroeconomic report titled “Navigating Rough Tides Ahead,” published on June 16, 2023, we outlined two potential policy responses that the central bank could adopt: an “Aggressive Response” and a “Progressive Response.” It appears that… Download Report

Navigating Rough Tides Ahead

CAL unveiled its macroeconomic outlook on Bangladesh as a preview to the monetary policy on June 16, 2023, to the clients. Keeping the monetary policy ahead, CAL explored two broad spectrums of policy options and its outcome: an aggressive response to stabilize the economy, potentially slowing growth, and a progressive response fostering growth but risking high inflation and currency depreciation. A broad investment strategy is also outlined based on the policy options. Download Report

Budget 2023-24: Prioritizing Growth while Macro Challenges Linger

In this year’s budget review, we will provide a broad overview of inflation, currency, growth, and interest rates, offering a general direction. The central bank’s policy stance after the parliamentary approval of the national budget will play a critical role in shaping the outcomes of … Download Report

Rags First but Riches to Follow

CAL unveiled its report on the apparel sector of Bangladesh, indicating a temporary downturn in global apparel exports in 2023 correlated with a dip in global output. Bangladesh’s apparel export growth is also expected Download Report

Bucking the trend

As major global central banks continue a synchronized tightening cycle in 2023, the Bangladesh Bank (BB) has chosen to maintain its accommodative stance, putting a higher priority on fostering economic growth over curbing inflation and reducing pressure on the exchange rate. Download Report

Beginning of the Tightening Cycle

Bangladesh Bank (BB) opted to increase the policy rate, signaling the beginning of a tightened monetary cycle to contain inflation and easing pressure on the exchange rate. Download Report

BUDGET 2022-23: A BALANCING ACT

The Govt of Bangladesh has unveiled its budget for the fiscal year 2022-23, where inflation control and currency stability appear as the core concern while accelerating economic growth remains the key objective with a 7.5% GDP growth target. Download Report

Bangladesh economy at an inflection point

CAL Bangladesh unveiled its macroeconomic report titled “Bangladesh economy at an inflection point.” The report covers CAL’s long-term bullish stance on the economy and outlook on short-term macroeconomic challenges stemming Download Report